A groundbreaking study published this month in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) reveals that Svalbard experienced an unprecedented glacier melt during the summer of 2024—losing roughly 1% of its total ice mass, or 61.7 ± 11.1 gigatons, the highest recorded in modern observations. The study acknowledges support from the LIQUIDICE project and underscores the urgency and relevance of integrated glacier surveillance.
Why is it important?
The unprecedented mass loss of Svalbard’s glaciers during the record-warm summer of 2024 has far-reaching consequences, contributing to global sea-level rise and impacting geosciences, ecosystems, and society at large. By integrating in situ observations, remote sensing, and modeling, researchers show that ice loss in 2024 far exceeded all previous records. Historical temperature analyses and future climate projections reveal that while such extreme warmth is rare under present conditions, but it is likely to become commonplace within a few decades. As such, the summer of 2024 offers a stark preview of how Arctic glaciers may undergo widespread meltdown in a warming world.
An extreme heatwave
Over a six-week period in summer 2024, Svalbard was gripped by a persistent atmospheric anomaly—air temperatures soared to levels virtually unheard of in the region, estimated to occur only once every 1,000 years under present climate norms. This led to vast quantities of ice melting in a short span, with summer 2024 setting a new benchmark for glacier mass loss on the archipelago. “What our study shows is that while the summer of 2024 was exceptionally extreme, similar temperatures will become the norm within just 25 to 50 years. It is frightening to realize how quickly the statistics are shifting—what counts as a once-in-a-thousand-year event today could be completely ordinary by mid-century,” – said Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, the main author of the paper, and the member of LIQUIDICE team from the University of Oslo.
From local losses to global consequences
Despite its far smaller size, Svalbard’s summer melt was comparable to ice loss from Greenland—highlighting how swiftly climate extremes are reshaping fragile Arctic systems. Across the broader circum-Barents region, which includes Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya, 102.1 ± 22.9 Gt of ice vanished in 2024—raising sea levels by 0.27 ± 0.06 mm, with 0.16 mm attributed solely to Svalbard.
A glimpse into the future
Using climate projections, the researchers warn that events like the summer of 2024—once considered exceedingly rare—may become increasingly common by 2100, even under moderate emissions scenarios. As the authors put it, Svalbard’s recent melt offers “a window into Arctic glacier meltdown in a warmer future”.
LIQUIDICE in the Spotlight
The LIQUIDICE project plays a crucial role in satellite-enabled monitoring of glacial behavior across vulnerable Arctic regions. LIQUIDICE’s mission to observe and understand glacier changes has never been more timely. Svalbard is one of the LIQUIDICE super-sites and Svalbard’s 2024 melt acts as both a crisis signal and a predictive benchmark for future Arctic change scenarios. While local, these melt events carry global consequences—from sea-level rise to feedbacks in ocean circulation and regional climate. The study’s call for more frequent and continuous data underscores the need for LIQUIDICE’s advanced observation strategy.
We encourage you to read the full paper: T.V. Schuler, R.E. Benestad, K. Isaksen, H.P. Kierulf, J. Kohler, G. Moholdt, & L.S. Schmidt, Svalbard’s 2024 record summer: An early view of Arctic glacier meltdown?, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 (34) e2503806122, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2503806122 (2025).
Photo credits: Shin Sugiyama, HU Sapporo