Within the framework of LIQUIDICE, global simulations with Earth System Models (ESMs) will be performed, coupled to the vast ice sheets of the northern and southern hemispheres, namely the Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat) and Antarctic ice sheets. Besides deciphering the impact of these interacting ice sheets on the global and regional climate state, these global simulations will be downscaled to LIQUIDICE’s super-sites. At these super-sites, such as various glaciers in Svalbard and the Monte Rosa valley in the Italian European Alps, local-scale and specialized simulations will be performed to assess the vulnerability of the land cryosphere to climate change and project the cryosphere’s future. Therefore, the global simulations fulfill three purposes.
First, LIQUIDICE will contribute substantially to the Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (ISMIP) under the CMIP umbrella. An ISMIP branch is dedicated to systems comprised of ESMs and ice sheet models (ISMs). In these two-way coupled setups, ice sheets respond to the climate computed in the ESM, while the simulated evolution of an ice sheet influences the Earth System; e.g., shrinking ice sheets change the orography in the atmosphere and release meltwater as additional freshwater into the ambient ocean. Since all contributing groups will perform simulations following the same protocol, systematic analyses of all ISMIP simulations will reveal model spread, allowing quantification of uncertainties.
Second, we aim to understand better how the improved representation of large-scale interacting ice sheets affects climate warming trajectories with and without these dynamically evolving ice sheets. In addition, we aspire to identify the strength of feedback loops between ice sheets and the general climate system in our model systems.
Third, we strive to uncover how these interactions leave an imprint on regional to local cryospheric environments ranging from the high Arctic in Greenland and Svalbard, to the temperate European Alps, and beyond to the West Himalaya Asia region. Consequently, we shed light on how the commonly neglected cascading effects of neglecting interacting large-scale ice bodies in downscaled simulations determine the cryospheric future across different landscapes and communities.
This milestone describes the rationale for the selected global climate scenarios. Furthermore, this document lists fields from global simulations that LIQUIDICE partners will use to downscale climate states to regional and local scales, allowing specialized simulations to determine various impacts in collaboration with WP4 on hydrological conditions, tourism development (Italy), electrification and climate adaptation (e.g., Greenland). Finally, it summarizes the existing coupled climate-ice-sheet efforts.
Read the full document Milestone 6 Agreement on the scenarios used in LIQUIDICE, considering CMIP and ISMIP developments and needs of the downscaling task in the library.